Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0584…75ea sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$268 (-3%) realized +$118 · open −$386
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%55W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$674
7 days−$13
14 days−$63
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$994
other 37% −$1,403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +42.9% +29.3% 66% 66% -9.8%
≤30d 85 +22.1% +10.5% 64% 62% -8.7%
≤90d 92 +14.4% +3.5% 60% 59% -9.8%
all 92 +14.4% +3.5% 60% 59% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 59% -9.8%
10% -6.4% 59% -18.4%
15% -15.5% 53% -26.3%
20% -23.7% 41% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$95 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,024
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$386
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses55 / 37
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 102
History coverage31d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $373 −$127 (-25%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 35¢ $360 $291 −$70 (-19%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $390 $206 −$184 (-47%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 69¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Vitality 42¢ 22¢ $60 $31 −$29 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $403 +$123 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at Jun 19 $15 +$25 +164%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $237 +$120 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$228 +614%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $404 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $177 +$113 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $220 +$205 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 −$174 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$53 +206%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $162 −$160 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 +$44 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$31 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 +$30 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $86 +$37 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $156 +$48 +31%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$31 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $52 +$51 +98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $253 +$176 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $344 +$196 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $38 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $101 +$62 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $112 −$110 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $38 +$41 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 53¢ $193 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $102 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $230 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $136 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $403 5h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 42¢ $61 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at BUY 37¢ $15 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $26 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY 14¢ $124 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $237 26h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $265 28h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $41 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $101 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $101 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $101 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $176 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $61 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 60¢ $253 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.44 · official $1,460.46 · 196 history records