Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0585…e6ee other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$9
world 33% +$1
politics 13% −$6
sports 13% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 33% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -8.8%
all 42 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -10.8%
10% -19.2% 2% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage304d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $59 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $14 −$1 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $32 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 14 $1 +$3 +218%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 −$7 -57%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $2 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $31 $0 -1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will $YZY hit $10B FDV by Friday? Aug 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Aug 19 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $30 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $30 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $30 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.73 · official $31.73 (match) · 253 history records