Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x058f…4883 world 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19,865 (-3%) realized −$15,490 · open −$4,375
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate54%81W / 68L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,916per market
Trades / day74.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$85,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$719
7 days−$535
14 days+$977
30 days−$13,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$10,601
crypto 20% −$11,938
other 17% +$1,331
politics 3% +$233
finance 0% +$161
tech 0% −$66
culture 0% +$20
sports 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 61% 9% -10.5%
≤30d 93 -5.0% -14.0% 59% 12% -13.8%
≤90d 149 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 9% -11.8%
all 149 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 9% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 9% -11.8%
10% -22.1% 2% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.6% 0% -27.9%
20% -36.5% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,127) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$366 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$85,955
Realized−$15,490
Unrealized−$4,375
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses81 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions51
Markets (closed)149 / 200
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$3,916
Trades / day74.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 74¢ $15,868 $14,629 −$1,238 (-8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 86¢ $8,253 $9,177 +$925 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $8,806 $8,623 −$184 (-2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $5,539 $5,934 +$395 (+7%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 60¢ $6,306 $5,784 −$522 (-8%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,445 $4,527 +$82 (+2%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 88¢ 90¢ $4,118 $4,215 +$97 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $3,723 $3,995 +$272 (+7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,009 $3,208 +$199 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 80¢ $2,086 $2,334 +$249 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $3,778 $2,063 −$1,715 (-45%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,856 $1,837 −$19 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,773 $1,798 +$25 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,780 $1,787 +$7 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,670 $1,775 +$105 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $1,544 $1,573 +$29 (+2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,472 $1,496 +$24 (+2%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,373 $1,466 +$92 (+7%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,134 $1,146 +$12 (+1%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? No 70¢ 66¢ $1,002 $951 −$51 (-5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 85¢ 94¢ $810 $898 +$88 (+11%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $851 $896 +$45 (+5%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $897 $877 −$20 (-2%)
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $601 $672 +$71 (+12%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 83¢ $482 $498 +$16 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $81 +$7 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9,944 −$91 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $4,138 +$116 +3%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $15,941 −$729 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $179 +$48 +27%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 14 $22 −$20 -89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $591 −$34 -6%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3,785 −$40 -1%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $728 +$19 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $47 +$6 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $437 +$3 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,254 −$159 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $338 −$94 -28%
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $272 +$6 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $362 +$27 +8%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $8,999 +$337 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 11 $799 +$28 +4%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Jun 11 $1,169 +$31 +3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 07 $245 +$6 +3%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $666 +$28 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $2,046 +$59 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,356 +$171 +7%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 05 $1,040 +$44 +4%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $118 +$22 +19%
Will "Oil" or "Gas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade St Jun 03 $10 +$2 +18%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 03 $517 +$51 +10%
Will "SpaceX" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,284 −$39 -3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 02 $2,787 +$94 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $418 +$3 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 01 $7,435 +$362 +5%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,463 +$29 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,023 +$186 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $178 +$22 +12%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,304 +$487 +6%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $1,191 +$60 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $10 $0 +5%
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? May 31 $34 −$1 -3%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? May 31 $1 $0 +2%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -2%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? May 31 $1 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $11,851 +$228 +2%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 30 $1,289 +$181 +14%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 30 $817 +$29 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 29 $1,082 +$35 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New pandemic in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 9m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 46m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 46m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $88 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $500 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $38 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 1h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $162 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $240 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $300 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $9 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $9 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 2h
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? SELL Yes $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $88 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $88 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $480 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $81 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85,955.06 · official $85,956.69 (match) · 3439 history records