Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0590…d2fb politics 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$19
politics 39% −$19
sports 11% +$52
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 116 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 148 +0.3% -9.2% 6% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×18.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage131d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $458 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $287 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $295 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $282 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $299 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 46h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 26d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $267 26d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $271 29d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $263 29d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $263 30d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $282 31d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $282 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 32d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 33d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $225 33d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $225 33d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $253 34d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $253 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records