Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0593…9712 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,040 (+4%) realized +$1,041 · open −$379
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%222W / 109L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day163.9pace
Fees−$972est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,456
7 days−$1,880
14 days+$1,013
30 days+$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 62% -14.1%
≤30d 331 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -8.2%
≤90d 331 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -8.2%
all 331 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 47% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 31% -17.0%
15% -22.5% 17% -25.0%
20% -30.1% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$102 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,138
Realized+$1,041
Unrealized−$379
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses222 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$972
Open positions2
Markets (closed)331 / 331
History coverage20d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day163.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 71¢ 100¢ $595 $836 +$241 (+40%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 72¢ 88¢ $247 $302 +$55 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 0¢ $434 $0 −$434 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 70¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Partizan Sangal 78¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins SSG Landers 59¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 76¢ 0¢ $695 $0 −$695 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 80¢ 0¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 66¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Misa Esports 85¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Hanwha Eagles 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs FlyQuest 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 60¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 60¢ 0¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien Stefanos Tsitsipas 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Team Heretics Academy 66¢ 0¢ $539 $0 −$539 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 +359%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien Jun 14 $1 −$2 -361%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $525 −$329 -63%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $598 +$364 +61%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $286 +$105 +36%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $462 −$344 -75%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $139 +$24 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$23 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $509 +$90 +18%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $600 +$320 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 +$25 +55%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $52 −$5 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $170 −$169 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $230 +$58 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $711 +$173 +24%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $738 −$379 -51%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $327 −$262 -80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $368 +$93 +25%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $892 −$539 -60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $700 +$347 +50%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $39 +$6 +14%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $85 −$23 -27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $134 +$24 +18%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $110 +$27 +24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,399 −$695 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $700 +$181 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $237 +$87 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,090 −$519 -48%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $54 +$14 +26%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $24 −$14 -58%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $513 −$218 -42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $426 +$75 +18%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $79 +$17 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $700 +$301 +43%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $121 +$31 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $358 −$223 -62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $815 −$102 -12%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $119 +$27 +22%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $331 +$110 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $274 +$68 +25%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $600 +$377 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $339 −$166 -49%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $600 +$143 +24%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $347 −$32 -9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $512 +$279 +54%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $66 +$31 +47%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 86¢ $29 40m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 54m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 54m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 54m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 54m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 57m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $30 58m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 74¢ $30 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 61¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 80¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 80¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 86¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 55¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 57¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 69¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 78¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 69¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 67¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 62¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.66 · official $1,137.66 (match) · 3500 history records