Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0593…c5a6 crypto 195 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate82%160W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5
sports 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -2.0% -11.4% 87% 42% -8.5%
≤30d 195 -5.1% -14.1% 82% 37% -10.1%
≤90d 195 -5.1% -14.1% 82% 37% -10.1%
all 195 -5.1% -14.1% 82% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 37% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 11% -18.7%
15% -29.8% 3% -26.6%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses160 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $65 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $65 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $59 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $65 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 455 history records