Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x0595…cebf crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+17%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$4
sports 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 52% -0.0%
≤30d 23 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 52% -0.0%
≤90d 23 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 52% -0.0%
all 23 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 52% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 52% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 30% -9.6%
15% -16.0% 30% -18.3%
20% -24.2% 17% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 66¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 21m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.84 · official $2.84 (match) · 52 history records