Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0598…3d83 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-9%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$376
other 20% +$211
crypto 6% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -9.1% -17.8% 32% 32% -17.3%
≤30d 98 -9.1% -17.8% 32% 32% -17.3%
≤90d 98 -9.1% -17.8% 32% 32% -17.3%
all 98 -9.1% -17.8% 32% 32% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 32% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 31% -25.2%
15% -32.8% 27% -32.4%
20% -39.4% 24% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 67
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 +$23 +114%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$10 +34%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$19 -94%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$3 -25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$14 +140%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$153 +51%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$111 +2161%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $152 +$86 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $405 −$82 -20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +181%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$38 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $415 −$243 -58%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 +$38 +74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 3¢ $1 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $8 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Saudi Arabia 21¢ $5 15h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor BUY 47¢ $20 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $457 23h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $15 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $20 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $20 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $152 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $202 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $51 32h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.56 · official $84.56 · 160 history records