Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x059d…52d5 crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,453 (+4%) realized +$1,526 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%68W / 82L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day188.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days−$3,050
14 days+$1,403
30 days+$1,403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$293
other 17% +$1,050
world 0% −$8
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -34.7% -40.9% 35% 34% -22.0%
≤30d 150 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 43% -6.1%
≤90d 150 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 43% -6.1%
all 150 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 43% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 43% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -15.1%
15% -31.4% 31% -23.3%
20% -38.1% 23% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$123 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,311
Realized+$1,526
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses68 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage12d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day188.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $1,330 $1,025 −$305 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $252 +$252 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 25¢ 16¢ $54 $34 −$21 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $532 +$468 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $537 −$117 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $765 +$229 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $271 −$265 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $626 +$151 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $491 −$491 -100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,158 +$204 +18%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $406 +$95 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$19 +118%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $1,275 −$1,179 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $499 −$50 -10%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $771 +$360 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $735 +$484 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $458 +$432 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $119 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,562 +$1,204 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $659 −$632 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $205 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $415 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $150 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $144 +$76 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$27 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $49 −$44 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $268 −$1 -0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$20 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $17 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $553 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $403 +$72 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $267 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $288 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $531 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,311.01 · official $1,058.68 · 2439 history records