Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x059e…4225
other · 121 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$218 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$205 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$178
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses44 / 74
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$26
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 87¢ $190 $177 −$13 (-7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $150 +$29 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $80 −$4 -4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $178 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $195 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $181 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $166 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $195 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $180 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $41 +$10 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $143 −$7 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $174 +$6 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $29 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $191 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $181 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $7 −$1 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $146 +$40 +27%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $400 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $255 +$2 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $144 −$2 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $674 −$278 -41%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $805 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $335 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,088 +$3 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,156 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +13%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 16 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 11 $9 +$3 +35%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 10 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% +$12
politics 31% +$5
other 23% −$277
sports 11% −$1
finance 2% +$40
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $190 2h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $127 38h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 42h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $151 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $77 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $192 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $88 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $58 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $45 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $46 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $92 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $77 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $49 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $28 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $80 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $178 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $178 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.4% 27% 9% -8.2%
≤30d 24 +0.4% -9.2% 25% 12% -7.7%
≤90d 32 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 9% -12.0%
all 118 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 4% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -11.7%
10% -18.9% 3% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.46 · official $177.12 (match) · 492 history records