Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05a6…7991 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 123L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$23
politics 24% −$23
sports 17% −$13
crypto 11% −$8
world 5% −$2
culture 4% $0
tech 3% −$2
finance 3% +$3
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 -0.6% -10.0% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 121 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 141 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage103d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $355 −$4 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $427 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $210 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $391 −$3 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $410 −$2 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $470 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 25 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $61 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $47 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $116 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 20 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $148 −$2 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $163 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 17 $62 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $59 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $38 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 15 $62 −$2 -3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $38 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 11d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 11d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 20d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $55 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $56 20d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 20d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $61 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $62 21d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 21d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $48 21d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $48 21d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 21d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $47 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $63 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $64 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 22d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 22d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 22d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 23d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $64 23d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $64 23d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.12 · official $41.12 (match) · 595 history records