Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05a6…d96e crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-18%) realized −$592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 32% -33.5%
≤30d 37 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 32% -33.5%
≤90d 37 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 32% -33.5%
all 37 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 32% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 32% -33.5%
10% -46.7% 27% -39.9%
15% -51.9% 24% -45.7%
20% -56.6% 16% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$59 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$56 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $410 −$45 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $117 +$75 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $284 −$95 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $225 +$80 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $209 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $82 +$58 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$37 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$20 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$31 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$56 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $59 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $22 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records