Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
05 0x05a7…42e6 sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,967 (-4%) realized −$47,199 · open +$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%166W / 137L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,078per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Fees−$15,985est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$73,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -49.0% -53.8% 32% 28% -71.7%
≤30d 151 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 49% -13.4%
≤90d 303 -4.2% -13.4% 55% 54% -17.3%
all 303 -4.2% -13.4% 55% 54% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 54% -17.3%
10% -21.6% 52% -25.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 46% -32.4%
20% -36.2% 35% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$6,085) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,747 vs −$4,095 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,792
Realized−$47,199
Unrealized+$232
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses166 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$15,985
Open positions2
Markets (closed)303 / 298
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$4,078
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 58¢ 100¢ $1,039 $1,792 +$753 (+73%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 58¢ 0¢ $522 $0 −$522 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qu Jun 19 $3,087 −$3,087 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 19 $3,624 −$3,624 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 19 $8,721 −$8,721 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3,069 −$3,069 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $13,091 −$13,091 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $787 +$641 +81%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,578 −$1,154 -73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,145 −$170 -15%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $778 −$716 -92%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $896 −$894 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,198 +$333 +28%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $140 +$49 +35%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $943 +$89 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $44 +$33 +74%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,781 −$2,781 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,253 −$2,238 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,722 −$2,718 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,038 −$1,027 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,827 +$4,683 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2,585 +$529 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $113 +$58 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,718 −$1,698 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2,949 +$1,727 +59%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7,024 −$7,024 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7,352 +$3,947 +54%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $6,993 −$6,919 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,900 +$4,400 +64%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6,987 −$6,973 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $6,777 +$5,613 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $5,037 +$2,019 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1,529 −$1,494 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6,085 +$4,576 +75%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $753 +$912 +121%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $4,367 −$349 -8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $7,374 −$7,316 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3,428 +$6,084 +178%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $554 −$549 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $19,266 −$19,248 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $8,623 +$4,217 +49%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,649 +$1,281 +35%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3,378 −$3,355 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10,167 +$6,500 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $7,701 −$7,701 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 05 $3,037 −$407 -13%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3,897 −$3,860 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10,443 −$10,443 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5,939 −$5,939 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 53¢ $13 59m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $1,038 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $1,214 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 58¢ $638 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 58¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $276 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 54¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 54¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 54¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 53¢ $242 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 55¢ $545 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $76 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $32 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $82 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $82 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $176 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $60 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $269 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $94 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $524 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $46 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $44 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,792.28 · official $1,792.28 (match) · 3500 history records