Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05a8…9c7f crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$333 (+4%) realized +$332 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,195
7 days+$1,195
14 days+$1,195
30 days+$1,195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$776
sports 39% +$1,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +30.6% +18.2% 56% 50% +53.1%
≤30d 18 +30.6% +18.2% 56% 50% +53.1%
≤90d 18 +30.6% +18.2% 56% 50% +53.1%
all 47 +8.4% -1.9% 51% 49% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 49% -2.1%
10% -11.3% 47% -11.5%
15% -19.9% 47% -20.0%
20% -27.7% 43% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$126 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$332
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage195d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 22¢ 24¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$62 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $135 +$81 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$33 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $206 +$356 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $188 +$323 +172%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $401 +$282 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $179 +$218 +122%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$53 +200%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $84 +$98 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$97 -94%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Etcheverry Jan 07 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 06 $150 +$100 +67%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 06 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 06 $48 +$33 +70%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 06 $165 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 06 $316 +$35 +11%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 05 $427 −$379 -89%
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 05 $441 +$237 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 05 $186 +$97 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 05 $112 +$112 +100%
Celtics vs. Clippers Jan 04 $303 +$341 +113%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5 Jan 03 $152 −$152 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $149 −$149 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 03 $217 −$176 -81%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 8AM ET Jan 01 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 01 $145 +$72 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 01 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 01 $300 −$257 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 01 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 04 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 04 $501 −$299 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $147 +$354 +241%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $101 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 04 $231 −$130 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 04 $148 +$83 +56%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $88 +$60 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 04 $45 +$43 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 04 $84 −$39 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $185 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $112 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $44 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $83 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $61 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $216 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $135 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $42 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $206 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $511 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 36¢ $188 46h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Lin Zhu 58¢ $401 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $143 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $96 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 99¢ $397 47h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 44¢ $179 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 36¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $79 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $182 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.02 · official $16.70 (match) · 98 history records