Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x05a9…0781 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$16 (+5%) realized +$19 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$31
crypto 7% −$1
other 6% −$20
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +140.6% +117.7% 27% 27% -20.2%
≤30d 27 +49.3% +35.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 27 +49.3% +35.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
all 27 +49.3% +35.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.1% 37% -9.7%
10% +22.2% 33% -18.3%
15% +10.4% 26% -26.2%
20% -0.5% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +118% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$45 +220%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +113%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 31 $10 +$8 +74%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $11 +$3 +24%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$2 -16%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
First Blood in Game 3? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $20 +$40 +195%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $30 +$20 +67%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $19 +$10 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $27 −$17 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $7 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $10 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 $5 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 13¢ $4 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 19¢ $1 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 23¢ $3 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $1 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $1 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $5 22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 25h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster $1 44h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster $1 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 93¢ $24 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 78¢ $65 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $20 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 66¢ $18 14d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $11 14d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 22¢ $10 14d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 37¢ $10 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $14 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 67¢ $1 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $10 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL HANJIN BRION 15¢ $9 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 17¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records