Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x05ab…8145
other · 37 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$27,920 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31,179 · open +$40
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 16 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,771
7 days+$16,629
14 days+$31,179
30 days+$31,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $7,230 $7,496 +$266 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 72¢ 59¢ $7,735 $6,345 −$1,391 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 60¢ $5,113 $4,768 −$345 (-7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $3,620 $4,437 +$817 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $4,144 $4,250 +$106 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $1,489 $2,626 +$1,137 (+76%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 82¢ 76¢ $2,559 $2,381 −$178 (-7%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 41¢ 32¢ $3,016 $2,332 −$684 (-23%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 57¢ 57¢ $553 $554 +$1 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 15¢ 10¢ $629 $440 −$190 (-30%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 43¢ $578 $388 −$190 (-33%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $428 $383 −$45 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 43¢ 42¢ $361 $353 −$7 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $271 $273 +$2 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 35¢ 36¢ $215 $216 +$1 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 32¢ 48¢ $117 $173 +$56 (+48%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 47¢ 48¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 23¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 MIBR 74¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 12 $1 +$670 +67250%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $68,946 +$4,144 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2,349 +$226 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,410 −$250 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $1,917 +$122 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,757 +$347 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $57,665 +$8,416 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $728 +$11 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $6,529 +$181 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $480 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $924 −$96 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,761 −$17 -0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $5,187 +$2,008 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $812 −$56 -7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,497 +$785 +52%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 07 $2,340 +$213 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $109 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $44,467 +$332 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4,810 +$180 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $27,008 +$8,578 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $7,492 +$5,461 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% +$26,988
crypto 13% +$512
other 6% +$2,492
sports 1% +$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $252 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $135 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $325 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $57 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $331 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $10 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $959 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $342 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $114 11m
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 10¢ $4 11m
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 10¢ $4 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $998 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $450 18m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $450 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $492 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+71.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +102.3% +83.1% 68% 26% -0.4%
≤30d 23 +89.3% +71.3% 74% 30% +1.9%
≤90d 23 +89.3% +71.3% 74% 30% +1.9%
all 23 +89.3% +71.3% 74% 30% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover244.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.3% 30% +1.9%
10% +54.9% 22% -7.8%
15% ← realistic here +39.9% 17% -16.7%
20% +26.2% 13% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,472.98 · official $37,472.98 (match) · 3500 history records