Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05ac…6d71 weather 771 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$521 (+0%) realized +$523 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate87%668W / 98L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$727
14 days−$642
30 days−$1,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% +$3,326
world 7% −$85
other 7% −$1,690
politics 6% −$194
sports 4% +$48
economics 2% −$138
tech 2% −$59
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 -2.9% -12.1% 67% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 532 -2.2% -11.5% 83% 1% -11.3%
≤90d 766 +0.2% -9.4% 87% 4% -8.8%
all 766 +0.2% -9.4% 87% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 4% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$81 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized+$523
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses668 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)766 / 771
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $243 $242 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $240 $239 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 79¢ 79¢ $237 $237 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 75¢ 75¢ $225 $225 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $183 $184 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $792 $0 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 21 $417 −$97 -23%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 21 $243 −$18 -7%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $366 −$54 -15%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $669 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $645 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $225 −$21 -9%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $245 −$8 -3%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 21 $180 −$13 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 21 $527 −$62 -12%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 21 $183 −$29 -16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $980 −$41 -4%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 21 $240 −$9 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 21 $1,529 −$8 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $254 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $495 −$30 -6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 20 $457 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $203 −$16 -8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $214 −$3 -1%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 20 $255 −$24 -9%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $240 −$21 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $1,593 −$9 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $249 −$7 -3%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 20 $305 −$30 -10%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $201 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 20 $378 −$9 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $365 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 19 $1,006 +$5 +0%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 19 $189 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 19 $410 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,033 +$13 +0%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 18 $213 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $234 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $189 −$75 -40%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 18 $267 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $180 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 18 $255 $0 +0%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $519 $0 -0%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $819 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $237 3m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $240 5m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $12 7m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 8m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 9m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 80¢ $50 13m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 79¢ $50 17m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $63 36m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 37m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $202 38m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $267 38m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 38¢ $110 51m
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 75¢ $225 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 43¢ $126 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $221 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 76¢ $226 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $233 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 1h
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central SELL No $0 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 69¢ $204 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 80¢ $237 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $129 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 63¢ $155 1h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 49¢ $45 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 55¢ $165 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $243 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.19 · official $1,124.69 (match) · 3500 history records