Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05ad…6f59 other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$44
sports 22% −$20
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.3% -9.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage138d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $227 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $358 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $506 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $338 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $901 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $313 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $256 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $315 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $379 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 31 $392 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 46m
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 7h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 11h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 14h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 16h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 28h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 30h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 33h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $8 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 37h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 40h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 43h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.09 · official $60.09 (match) · 1392 history records