Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05b4…b6a9 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$6
world 18% −$2
politics 17% −$4
tech 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -4.0% -13.1% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -4.0% -13.1% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$879) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage77d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,202 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,797 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 11 $851 −$5 -1%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $849 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 09 $947 −$1 -0%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? May 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 09 $977 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 09 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pres Apr 07 $69 $0 -1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o Apr 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 22m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,325 29m
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 38m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,277 45m
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 52m
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $930 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $307 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,239 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $43 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 34d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $32 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 34d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $11 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $19 34d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 37d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 37d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 37d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 37d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 37d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $21 37d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 38d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $920 38d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 38d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $884 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records