Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05bc…f3eb sports 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,807 (-12%) realized −$1,792 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%305W / 441L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day215.5pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$243
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$1,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$754
other 10% −$201
crypto 4% −$78
weather 3% −$140
politics 1% −$14
tech 0% +$3
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +3.7% -6.2% 58% 31% -17.6%
≤30d 746 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 27% -18.2%
≤90d 746 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 27% -18.2%
all 746 -5.3% -14.3% 41% 27% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 27% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 20% -26.0%
15% -30.0% 14% -33.2%
20% -36.8% 11% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$1,792
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses305 / 441
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions16
Markets (closed)746 / 760
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day215.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 53¢ 100¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+89%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lindorfitos 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 63¢ 84¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 62¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 74¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 52¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 24¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 46¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 13¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 65¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? No 19¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 70¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 14¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 15 $0 −$10 -15014%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 15 $0 −$9 -3301%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $37 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 +$24 +414%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $405 −$173 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $130 +$38 +29%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$20 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $78 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $21 −$17 -79%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +112%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $306 +$15 +5%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $259 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $248 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $50 +$13 +26%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $100 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $574 −$79 -14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $235 −$46 -20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $3 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 64¢ $5 1m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 24¢ $5 13m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 66¢ $10 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 18¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 53¢ $15 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 11¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 11¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $2 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Heretics 46¢ $0 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 52¢ $4 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Heretics 46¢ $4 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Heretics 47¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 51¢ $4 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Heretics 47¢ $4 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 51¢ $7 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 51¢ $5 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 51¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 53¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 53¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 53¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 53¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 53¢ $14 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 49¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Infinite 39¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL ex-RUBY 60¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Infinite 39¢ $7 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.61 · official $102.88 (match) · 3500 history records