Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x05bc…21bd sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%128W / 45L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$21
sports 33% +$16
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% −$9
world 2% +$2
culture 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 9 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 11% -2.8%
≤90d 30 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 27% -13.8%
all 173 +1.5% -8.1% 74% 36% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 36% -8.6%
10% -16.9% 18% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 13% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses128 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage578d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 96¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Will FK Rostov win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $22 +$2 +11%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $24 +$2 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Amiens SC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $13 +$2 +13%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 23 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $18 +$3 +18%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $37 +$5 +14%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $46 +$10 +21%
Copa Colsanitas: Valentina Mediorreal vs Tatjana Maria Apr 01 $29 +$1 +2%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Mar 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $19 +$6 +33%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $33 +$5 +15%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $27 +$6 +24%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $26 +$3 +12%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 14 $33 +$3 +10%
Santiago: Adolfo Vallejo vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Mar 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Santiago: Facundo Mena vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Mar 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Santiago: Adolfo Vallejo vs Gonzalo Villanueva Mar 11 $59 +$1 +1%
Will FK Rukh Lviv win on 2026-03-09? Mar 10 $16 +$1 +9%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 08 $19 +$1 +5%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov Mar 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $32 +$2 +8%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 06 $25 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $25 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $22 5d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 91¢ $27 14d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 88¢ $22 15d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 94¢ $21 16d
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 97¢ $21 18d
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 96¢ $11 20d
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 92¢ $19 20d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 91¢ $15 24d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 91¢ $31 31d
Will FK Rostov win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 91¢ $27 38d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 97¢ $4 38d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 97¢ $14 38d
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 93¢ $24 39d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 90¢ $22 39d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 92¢ $21 40d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 96¢ $21 40d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 95¢ $23 45d
Will Amiens SC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 96¢ $20 46d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $13 48d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 80¢ $20 48d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 50d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 53d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 94¢ $32 54d
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 94¢ $34 60d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $17 63d
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 84¢ $18 66d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 91¢ $20 67d
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 87¢ $37 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.62 · official $26.62 (match) · 375 history records