Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05c8…a2f8 world 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,257 (+12%) realized +$1,250 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%52W / 98L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1,860
other 18% −$328
sports 16% +$530
politics 11% −$560
finance 9% +$59
tech 5% −$279
crypto 2% +$51
economics 1% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +173.3% +147.2% 40% 40% +106.8%
≤90d 105 -16.1% -24.1% 24% 24% -16.4%
all 150 +9.2% -1.2% 35% 29% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 29% +2.2%
10% -10.7% 28% -7.5%
15% -19.3% 27% -16.5%
20% -27.2% 25% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$39 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized+$1,250
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses52 / 98
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions11
Markets (closed)150 / 170
History coverage352d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $185 $230 +$45 (+24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $93 −$27 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $66 $79 +$13 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 19¢ 54¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+182%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+72%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $36 $2 −$34 (-94%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $509 +$791 +155%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 30 $0 $0 +1011%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $25 +$75 +300%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $364 −$357 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? May 05 $54 +$46 +85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $27 +$73 +270%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 26 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $49 −$49 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? Apr 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 23 $110 +$189 +172%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Apr 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 23 $153 −$91 -59%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 23 $46 −$46 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April? Apr 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona in 2026? Apr 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Apr 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 23 $18 +$60 +335%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 23 $199 +$83 +42%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? Apr 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? Apr 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $66 +$134 +203%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 17 $20 +$30 +154%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 14 $72 −$72 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Steve Bannon exonerated by April 30? Apr 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slove Apr 10 $17 +$67 +394%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $18 +$74 +411%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026 Apr 10 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $84 −$84 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026 Apr 08 $69 +$105 +154%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $38 +$38 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $33 −$11 -33%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $27 +$54 +200%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 06 $45 +$55 +122%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $21 +$83 +390%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $14 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $5 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 4¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $9 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 2¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 1¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $48 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 16d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 27¢ $26 17d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 27¢ $28 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $0 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $3 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.90 · official $610.90 (match) · 728 history records