Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05d4…ee17 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 25% −$5
politics 9% −$2
sports 6% +$38
tech 5% $0
weather 5% −$19
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -10.9% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 32 +24.7% +12.8% 44% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 9% -7.6%
10% +2.0% 6% -16.5%
15% -7.9% 6% -24.5%
20% -16.9% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage486d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Dec 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 06 $22 $0 -1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $21 $0 -1%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 19 $16 −$7 -42%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 19 $13 −$2 -16%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 01 $11 +$2 +17%
Toledo vs. Kent State Feb 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26? Feb 25 $34 −$19 -54%
Bodo Glimt vs. FC Twente Feb 25 $4 +$6 +156%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $36 $0 -0%
Hornets vs. Lakers Feb 20 $4 +$32 +733%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $21 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $21 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $5 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $49 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.26 · official $40.14 (match) · 100 history records