Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05d5…447c crypto 1189 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$216 (+2%) realized +$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate74%876W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$124
14 days+$136
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +8.2% -2.1% 91% 60% -2.3%
≤30d 115 +7.4% -2.8% 90% 61% -2.4%
≤90d 1189 -1.0% -10.5% 74% 68% -9.2%
all 1189 -1.0% -10.5% 74% 68% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 68% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 45% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 8% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses876 / 313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1189 / 1189
History coverage66d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1189 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$13 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $29 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $28 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $24 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $22 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $22 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 2826 history records