Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05de…2cef crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$102 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%33W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$178
crypto 26% −$62
sports 22% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 27% -14.5%
≤30d 98 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 27% -14.5%
≤90d 98 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 27% -14.5%
all 98 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 27% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 27% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 20% -22.7%
15% -34.6% 17% -30.1%
20% -41.1% 12% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses33 / 65
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $54 +$53 +99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$34 -74%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $86 +$2 +2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $60 +$9 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$30 +74%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 −$4 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$76 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$18 +22%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $182 −$90 -49%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $24 +$32 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$27 +36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $139 −$58 -42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 +$32 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$11 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -82%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 43m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $72 44m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 97¢ $17 3h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 57¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $35 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $30 4h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $69 4h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $60 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 52¢ $39 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $41 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 52¢ $15 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $15 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 314 history records