Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05df…882d politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$46,217 (+6%) realized +$45,804 · open −$143
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate62%81W / 49L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$5,898per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$24,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,513
7 days+$17,391
14 days+$37,498
30 days+$39,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$728
other 33% +$25,274
politics 10% −$977
economics 4% +$704
culture 2% +$495
crypto 2% +$19,339
tech 0% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 25% +3.0%
≤30d 29 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 28% +4.4%
≤90d 61 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 28% -1.2%
all 130 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 21% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 21% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -13.1%
15% -28.4% 7% -21.5%
20% -35.4% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$4,791) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$286 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$24,504
Realized+$45,804
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses81 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)130 / 139
History coverage359d
Avg bet$5,898
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $16,072 $15,579 −$493 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $5,576 $5,885 +$310 (+6%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $1,336 $1,223 −$113 (-8%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $516 $699 +$183 (+35%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $447 $452 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $311 $309 −$3 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $259 $223 −$35 (-14%)
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $119 $123 +$3 (+3%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? No $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Yes $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? No $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? No $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16,482 −$637 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $22,014 +$3,176 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $278 +$16 +6%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $345 +$5 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $550 −$46 -8%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 11 $86,305 +$14,885 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$7 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $221 −$16 -7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $401 +$82 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12,496 +$19,365 +155%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34,409 −$25 -0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $11,496 +$695 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 31 $989 +$10 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $5,364 +$5 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $12 −$11 -90%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $57 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $28,374 +$2,369 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $5,307 −$299 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1,867 −$67 -4%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 24 $3,401 −$645 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $900 −$15 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $11,116 +$857 +8%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $4,791 +$51 +1%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $69 +$28 +41%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $12,841 +$78 +1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 16 $72 +$9 +12%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $75 +$24 +32%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $215 +$47 +22%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $24 −$7 -30%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $68 −$23 -34%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $12,351 +$538 +4%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5,071 +$438 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Apr 26 $41 +$14 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $5,676 +$45 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $6 +$3 +49%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $130 +$16 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,511 +$22 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,710 +$18 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $2,092 +$32 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,254 +$1 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 16 $93 −$6 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $9,878 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,142 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $0 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,696 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $763 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $179 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,374 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $181 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $30 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $91 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $14 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $19 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $180 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,503.55 · official $24,220.34 · 2355 history records