Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05e0…e2cb sports 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,707 (+4%) realized +$1,794 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%185W / 178L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$506est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$662
14 days−$557
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,357
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +10.4% -0.1% 52% 52% +12.3%
≤30d 140 -0.6% -10.1% 48% 46% -8.1%
≤90d 333 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 44% -10.1%
all 363 +0.7% -8.9% 51% 45% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -6.6%
10% -17.6% 45% -15.5%
15% -25.6% 44% -23.7%
20% -32.9% 44% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$105 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$1,794
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses185 / 178
Est. fees paid−$506
Open positions3
Markets (closed)363 / 366
History coverage108d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Under 43¢ 44¢ $130 $136 +$6 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Under 44¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 43¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $122 +$128 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$77 +152%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $149 +$215 +144%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$174 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $122 +$164 +134%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $122 +$105 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$18 +172%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 15 $152 +$181 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $71 +$104 +146%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $122 +$105 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $162 +$134 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $162 +$123 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $122 +$109 +90%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $51 −$46 -90%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $122 +$119 +98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $304 −$300 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $152 −$150 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 06 $163 −$160 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $132 +$151 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $101 +$95 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 46¢ $102 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 43¢ $92 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $102 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $20 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $102 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $102 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $51 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 8h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $82 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $81 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ $102 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $152 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $132 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $17 27h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $61 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $102 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $132 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $102 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 42¢ $122 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $51 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 31¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 36¢ $10 3d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $152 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $71 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $122 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.52 · official $232.52 (match) · 698 history records