Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05e1…4c1e weather 1097 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,142 (-51%) realized −$9,142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%959W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day80.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$419
world 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 781 -31.3% -37.9% 61% 33% -27.3%
≤30d 1336 -16.4% -24.4% 72% 41% -18.1%
≤90d 1345 -17.0% -24.9% 71% 41% -18.4%
all 1345 -17.0% -24.9% 71% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 41% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 16% -26.2%
15% -38.6% 1% -33.4%
20% -44.7% 1% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses959 / 386
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1345 / 1097
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day80.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1345 Trades
no open positions (385 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on May 16? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 15? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 4? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 9? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records