Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05e1…85a2 sports 616 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51,135 (+14%) realized +$50,090 · open +$1,045
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%285W / 276L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$2,427est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$11,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,143
7 days+$1,714
14 days−$2,014
30 days+$34,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$51,131
other 10% −$1,690
crypto 1% −$2,097
politics 1% −$158
world 0% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.2% -32.4% 40% 40% -2.8%
≤30d 40 +18.4% +7.1% 50% 50% +42.1%
≤90d 266 -16.2% -24.1% 42% 42% -8.6%
all 561 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 50% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 50% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 47% -7.2%
15% -29.1% 42% -16.2%
20% -36.1% 38% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$588 vs −$440 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$11,642
Realized+$50,090
Unrealized+$1,045
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses285 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,427
Open positions56
Markets (closed)561 / 616
History coverage152d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1,500 $2,940 +$1,440 (+96%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $997 −$3 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $767 +$67 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 56¢ $600 $652 +$52 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $630 −$70 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $600 $598 −$2 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $550 +$50 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $388 −$112 (-22%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes $332 $347 +$15 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $325 +$25 (+8%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $300 $273 −$27 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $216 $246 +$30 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $188 −$112 (-38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $121 −$4 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1,450 −$1,440 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $806 +$233 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,061 −$2,027 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,529 −$2,500 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $810 −$800 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $759 −$750 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,448 +$1,639 +113%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $507 +$419 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$500 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3,022 +$2,488 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 10 $307 −$300 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,217 +$1,090 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $734 +$1,108 +151%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,102 +$4,653 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 08 $240 −$240 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $763 +$1,066 +140%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $761 −$750 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $100 −$99 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,614 −$2,580 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2,732 +$1,768 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $505 +$252 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,695 +$9,631 +568%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $6,038 +$22,861 +379%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4,990 +$6,163 +124%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $2,478 −$2,446 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $307 +$805 +262%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,134 +$2,338 +206%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $1,111 +$1,111 +100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $307 −$300 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $1,790 −$1,780 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 10 $101 +$80 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $409 −$400 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $305 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 59m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,642.00 · official $11,642.11 (match) · 2588 history records