Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x05e1…e9ca sports 16 markets active 6d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized −$58 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$787
14 days−$162
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$840
sports 47% +$745
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -94.9% -95.4% 0% 0% -91.6%
≤30d 14 -9.8% -18.4% 36% 36% -13.8%
≤90d 14 -9.8% -18.4% 36% 36% -13.8%
all 14 -9.8% -18.4% 36% 36% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 36% -13.8%
10% -26.2% 36% -22.1%
15% -33.4% 36% -29.6%
20% -39.9% 36% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$112 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage18d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes $16 $3 −$13 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $789 −$709 -90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $299 +$517 +173%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 +$158 +83%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $141 −$137 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 +$137 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $54 +$89 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $81 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $80 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $789 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9d
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY Yes $16 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $298 10d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $26 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $192 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $4 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $131 15d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $8 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $69 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $54 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 24d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards BUY Yes 25¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.07 · official $8.07 (match) · 28 history records