Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05e2…ea88 crypto 62 markets active 6h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,362 (-2%) realized −$2,634 · open −$9,728
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%40W / 15L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,757per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$102,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,589
7 days+$4,690
14 days+$4,694
30 days+$5,967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$7,923
world 26% −$7,642
politics 9% +$6,216
tech 9% +$1,692
crypto 1% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 62% 46% -1.8%
≤30d 39 +1.4% -8.3% 67% 44% -4.9%
≤90d 49 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 35% -6.6%
all 55 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 33% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 27% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 18% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$11,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$841 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$102,858
Realized−$2,634
Unrealized−$9,728
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)55 / 62
History coverage116d
Avg bet$9,757
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $46,189 $51,282 +$5,093 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $13,105 $13,691 +$587 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $10,407 $12,246 +$1,840 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 87¢ $7,388 $10,034 +$2,646 (+36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $6,619 $6,820 +$200 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $5,222 $5,262 +$40 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 13¢ $20,680 $3,119 −$17,561 (-85%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $330 $404 +$73 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$108 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $152 −$34 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $186 +$149 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $153 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $305 −$81 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $27,870 +$4,395 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $153 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $204 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $24,781 +$51 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $204 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$85 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $61,230 +$1,272 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $26,016 +$1,752 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $22,218 +$782 +4%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $9,840 +$160 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $25,528 +$805 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $11,100 −$2,614 -24%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $8,458 +$361 +4%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $3,477 +$68 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $11,694 +$302 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $13,624 +$253 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $21,013 +$848 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 20 $11,826 −$9,373 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $331 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $52 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $262 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5,629 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $305 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $694 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $176 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $205 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 27h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $90 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $23 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $13 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $634 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $56 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 28h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,575 29h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $920 29h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $379 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102,857.64 · official $102,857.64 (match) · 1223 history records