Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05e5…e06b other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 26% −$1
politics 7% +$2
crypto 6% −$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $72 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 17 $3 −$2 -62%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $3 −$1 -29%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 01 $16 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in March? Mar 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $10 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $10 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $23 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $17 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 44h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $30 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $6 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $36 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $15 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $20 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $36 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.58 · official $36.38 (match) · 119 history records