Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x05f0…2469 other 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,439 (+25%) realized +$21,480 · open −$1,041
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%47W / 36L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$23,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$916
30 days+$1,960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$7,849
sports 47% +$11,155
crypto 1% +$402
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +52.4% +37.9% 78% 78% +21.8%
≤90d 58 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 47% +15.1%
all 83 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 54% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 54% +26.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 47% +14.6%
15% -12.8% 47% +3.6%
20% -21.3% 45% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$916) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$347 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$23,445
Realized+$21,480
Unrealized−$1,041
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses47 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions74
Markets (closed)83 / 157
History coverage150d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $2,031 $1,980 −$50 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 59¢ $1,757 $1,774 +$17 (+1%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $1,232 $1,266 +$34 (+3%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 43¢ 46¢ $1,064 $1,150 +$87 (+8%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 48¢ 42¢ $1,264 $1,095 −$169 (-13%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 78¢ $687 $1,001 +$314 (+46%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 36¢ 17¢ $2,019 $958 −$1,061 (-53%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 28¢ $1,002 $895 −$106 (-11%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 34¢ $650 $837 +$187 (+29%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 27¢ $840 $810 −$30 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 28¢ $794 $712 −$83 (-10%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $291 $707 +$416 (+143%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 25¢ $744 $705 −$39 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 48¢ $578 $688 +$111 (+19%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $623 $682 +$59 (+10%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 42¢ $394 $648 +$254 (+65%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 26¢ $1,379 $575 −$804 (-58%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $488 $516 +$28 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 24¢ $358 $459 +$101 (+28%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 41¢ 47¢ $395 $452 +$57 (+14%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 14¢ $295 $402 +$107 (+36%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 84¢ $218 $391 +$174 (+80%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $201 $350 +$149 (+74%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $330 $347 +$17 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $360 $312 −$48 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $926 −$916 -99%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 31 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $849 +$186 +22%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $1 +$1 +85%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $327 +$187 +57%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 24 $33 +$97 +291%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $914 +$786 +86%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $818 +$421 +52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,680 +$1,320 +79%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t May 18 $22 +$9 +43%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $1,372 −$1,335 -97%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 08 $540 +$585 +108%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 22 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 22 $1,749 −$1,749 -100%
Kings vs. Canucks Apr 22 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $1,846 +$228 +12%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $3,320 +$680 +20%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $490 +$510 +104%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men Apr 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curlin Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? Apr 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotty James (AUS) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - Me Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Sk Apr 14 $237 +$291 +123%
Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mix Apr 14 $769 +$3,343 +435%
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Wo Apr 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed Apr 14 $98 +$110 +112%
Will Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Apr 14 $462 +$345 +74%
Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Men's at Apr 14 $215 −$215 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Apr 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men Apr 14 $961 +$530 +55%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Wom Apr 14 $381 −$381 -100%
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixe Apr 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? Apr 14 $264 −$264 -100%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 14 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling Apr 14 $502 −$310 -62%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Apr 14 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $367 −$367 -100%
The Masters 2026: Round below 63 Apr 13 $746 +$101 +14%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 12 $1,960 +$2,040 +104%
The Masters 2026: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Jon Rahm Apr 11 $19 +$17 +89%
Will Jon Rahm make the cut at the 2026 Masters? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $28 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $74 1h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 43¢ $158 8h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $23 10h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 11h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 11h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $214 11h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $12 11h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 12h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 13h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $2 13h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 13h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 13h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 14h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $170 15h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 43¢ $22 16h
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 43¢ $25 16h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $17 16h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $9 16h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $247 17h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $1 17h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $161 17h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $118 17h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 17h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 18h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $31 18h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 27¢ $34 18h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $24 18h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $23 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,444.58 · official $23,444.26 (match) · 1717 history records