Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05f1…881c other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%58W / 70L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$31
other 24% +$3
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +59.4% +44.2% 39% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 39 +50.7% +36.3% 38% 5% -9.5%
all 128 +13.8% +3.0% 45% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -6.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -15.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -24.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses58 / 70
Open positions4
Markets (closed)128 / 132
History coverage452d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $174 $173 −$1 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $174 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $366 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $203 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $1,233 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $145 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $190 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $121 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $167 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $193 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $525 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $161 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $181 −$4 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $181 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $698 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $67 +$4 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $167 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $82 −$21 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $406 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $149 −$4 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $189 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $402 −$3 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $19 −$3 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $189 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $18 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $190 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $188 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $146 +$34 +24%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $6 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1,010 +$3 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $86 −$2 -3%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $358 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 31 $1 $0 -19%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $9 $0 +1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $166 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $58 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $73 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $167 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $7 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $148 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $73 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $80 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $53 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $54 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $66 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $173 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $89 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $56 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $112 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $140 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $151 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $190 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.81 · official $172.82 (match) · 483 history records