Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05f8…9b8c economics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-8%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$1
other 30% −$1
world 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 25% -28.0%
≤30d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 8 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 25% -28.0%
all 8 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 25% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 25% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -34.9%
15% -41.9% 25% -41.2%
20% -47.6% 25% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)8 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47m
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47m
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 47m
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.85 · official $13.85 (match) · 26 history records