Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x05f9…d518 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 29% −$2
politics 10% $0
culture 3% −$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -5.5% -14.5% 34% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage455d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $127 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $8 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 +$1 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -49%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $8 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $40 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 95¢ $5 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records