Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x05fe…1313 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-13%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$4
culture 36% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -46.1% -51.2% 40% 40% -64.4%
≤30d 5 -46.1% -51.2% 40% 40% -64.4%
≤90d 5 -46.1% -51.2% 40% 40% -64.4%
all 16 -33.4% -39.7% 44% 44% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 44% -28.0%
10% -45.5% 38% -34.8%
15% -50.8% 31% -41.1%
20% -55.6% 12% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage166d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Jun 15 $18 +$4 +20%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Feb 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes Feb 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sarah Snook (All Her Fault) win Best Actress – Limited Series at Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Feb 16 $48 +$14 +28%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Jan 12 $9 +$9 +95%
Will Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) win Best Actor – Musical or Com Jan 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at Jan 12 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $30 +$12 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 1h
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac BUY Yes 83¢ $18 91d
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th BUY Yes 67¢ $10 91d
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 24¢ $10 91d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A BUY Yes 16¢ $5 91d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 98d
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 147d
Will Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) win Best Actor – Musical or Com SELL Yes 100¢ $14 154d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at SELL Yes 100¢ $19 154d
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – BUY Yes 51¢ $9 154d
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes BUY Yes 55¢ $9 154d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at BUY Yes 52¢ $10 154d
Will Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) win Best Actor – Musical or Com BUY Yes 71¢ $10 154d
Will Sarah Snook (All Her Fault) win Best Actress – Limited Series at BUY Yes 57¢ $10 154d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil BUY Yes 78¢ $48 159d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? SELL No 100¢ $42 163d
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 166d
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 166d
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 166d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 71¢ $30 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.03 · official $139.04 (match) · 39 history records