Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
05 0x05ff…d176 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,188 (-64%) realized −$1,700 · open −$488
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$952
world 29% −$1,001
other 21% −$585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-59.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -55.1% -59.3% 29% 29% -79.2%
≤30d 7 -55.1% -59.3% 29% 29% -79.2%
≤90d 7 -55.1% -59.3% 29% 29% -79.2%
all 7 -55.1% -59.3% 29% 29% -79.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.3% 29% -79.2%
10% -63.2% 14% -81.2%
15% -66.8% 14% -83.0%
20% -70.0% 14% -84.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$462 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$1,700
Unrealized−$488
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 50¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $251 +$243 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $126 −$125 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $609 −$602 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $580 −$580 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 +$17 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $251 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $494 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $251 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $126 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $3 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,001 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $609 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $580 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $117 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $67 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.14 · official $245.14 (match) · 15 history records