Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
06 0x0602…c77a crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,459 (-28%) realized −$1,459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$400
14 days−$400
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$834
other 24% −$549
world 13% −$253
sports 11% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -44.7% -50.0% 0% 0% -50.0%
≤30d 1 -44.7% -50.0% 0% 0% -50.0%
≤90d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 18% 18% -45.5%
all 32 -22.4% -29.8% 34% 31% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 31% -36.3%
10% -36.5% 25% -42.4%
15% -42.7% 19% -48.0%
20% -48.3% 16% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$102 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage120d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $895 −$400 -45%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? Apr 11 $250 −$246 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $250 −$9 -4%
Will Yousri Belgaroui win by KO or TKO? Mar 29 $68 +$136 +200%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $100 +$117 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 27 $500 −$178 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 27 $706 −$346 -49%
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel Mar 15 $150 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 28 $550 −$298 -54%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $448 −$101 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 28 $253 +$77 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 28 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 28 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $203 +$168 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 27 $55 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 27 $50 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 27 $33 −$14 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 27 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 27 $18 +$19 +103%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Feb 27 $56 −$7 -12%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $200 −$145 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $495 1h
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 65¢ $51 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 55d
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 42¢ $250 69d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car SELL Jirí Procházka 49¢ $241 69d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 50¢ $250 69d
Will Yousri Belgaroui win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 83d
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight SELL Yousri Belgaroui 100¢ $217 83d
Will Yousri Belgaroui win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 84d
Will Yousri Belgaroui win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 84d
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight BUY Yousri Belgaroui 46¢ $100 84d
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel SELL Myktybek Orolbai 100¢ $185 97d
Will Myktybek Orolbai win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 97d
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prel BUY Myktybek Orolbai 81¢ $150 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $200 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $50 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $252 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $500 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $358 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $360 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $347 112d
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 60¢ $347 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $197 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $186 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $142 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $136 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $150 112d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records