Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0603…7e1a world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 20% $0
sports 16% −$8
politics 14% +$1
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -7.9% 33% 17% -10.6%
≤30d 21 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +2.8% -7.0% 37% 4% -9.6%
all 84 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage524d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $57 −$2 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $169 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $6 +$1 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $132 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $18 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $281 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $20 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records