Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x0604…2f4f sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,319 (+67%) realized +$1,321 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$318
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,283
other 3% $0
world 2% +$6
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +63.7% +48.1% 67% 67% +73.8%
≤90d 16 +50.2% +35.9% 81% 62% +60.6%
all 21 +38.4% +25.2% 86% 48% +56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.2% 48% +56.9%
10% +13.2% 33% +41.9%
15% +2.3% 33% +28.2%
20% -7.8% 24% +15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$151 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$1,321
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 40¢ 40¢ $194 $191 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $161 −$158 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $326 +$475 +146%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $239 +$349 +146%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $116 −$113 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $223 +$177 +79%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $185 −$181 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $192 +$318 +165%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? May 07 $11 +$2 +19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 07 $15 $0 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 07 $17 +$7 +42%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? May 07 $22 +$2 +11%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 07 $43 +$16 +38%
76ers vs. Celtics May 07 $90 +$396 +442%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? Feb 03 $22 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 07 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 40¢ $197 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $161 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $91 14d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $235 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $239 22d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 25¢ $116 31d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $223 38d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LGD Gaming 31¢ $185 43d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 37¢ $192 50d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 18¢ $90 59d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 72¢ $43 61d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $17 70d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $11 92d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $14 100d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 97¢ $15 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $10 111d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $12 118d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 135d
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 150d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 159d
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 169d
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition BUY Yes 100¢ $22 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.18 · official $191.18 (match) · 41 history records