Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
06 0x0606…cd3b crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$33
crypto 46% +$20
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.2% -3.9% 77% 41% -12.1%
≤30d 22 +6.2% -3.9% 77% 41% -12.1%
≤90d 22 +6.2% -3.9% 77% 41% -12.1%
all 22 +6.2% -3.9% 77% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 41% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 27% -20.5%
15% -21.5% 18% -28.2%
20% -29.2% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +47%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.83 · official $79.61 (match) · 52 history records