Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0607…c726 sports 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-8%) realized −$59 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%92W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$40
other 24% −$10
crypto 2% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.7% -33.7% 25% 25% -33.5%
≤30d 18 +19.3% +8.0% 56% 56% -5.7%
≤90d 195 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 41% -15.3%
all 195 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 41% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 41% -15.3%
10% -22.1% 35% -23.4%
15% -29.7% 30% -30.8%
20% -36.5% 27% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)195 / 202
History coverage87d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -19%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -96%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $1 +$1 +121%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $2 +$2 +88%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $1 $0 -9%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $1 +$1 +69%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $1 +$1 +95%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 05 $2 +$1 +58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $1 +$2 +213%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $2 +$2 +99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-03-28? Mar 30 $4 +$1 +13%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Torino FC (-2.5) Mar 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $2 $0 +23%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-03? Mar 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-05? Mar 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Getafe CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Mar 28 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Mar 28 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5) Mar 28 $2 $0 -3%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 28 $4 $0 -6%
Seoul Thunders vs. Anyang Mar 28 $2 +$10 +488%
Will Liberia win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $4 $0 -5%
Will América de Cali vs. Llaneros FC end in a draw? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-25? Mar 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Türkiye vs. Romania end in a draw? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 28 $8 −$4 -44%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 138.5 Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Sao Paulo: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Monteiro Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.24 · official $30.59 (match) · 1776 history records