Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0609…701a crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-1%) realized −$85 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%99W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$15
crypto 33% −$122
other 15% −$24
tech 4% $0
politics 4% +$1
economics 3% −$3
finance 2% −$5
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 146 -2.0% -11.4% 68% 0% -11.0%
all 146 -2.0% -11.4% 68% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.9% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses99 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage34d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 38¢ $88 $75 −$13 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$1 -1%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $270 −$3 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $603 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $316 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $446 −$4 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 02 $18 −$4 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 02 $154 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $34 −$5 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $669 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $450 −$56 -12%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $140 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $124 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $28 +$1 +2%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $52 −$9 -18%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $110 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 22 $150 $0 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 22 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $59 54m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $52 54m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $111 54m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 69¢ $3 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 70¢ $4 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 70¢ $13 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 70¢ $43 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 70¢ $4 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 4h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $44 6h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $44 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $138 13h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 13h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 33h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $130 35h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 46h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $130 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $74 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $88 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $35 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $36 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $120 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $120 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $6 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $19 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $54 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.00 · official $75.00 (match) · 484 history records