Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x060d…d746 other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$794 (-12%) realized −$696 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$658
14 days−$679
30 days−$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$395
other 41% −$401
world 5% −$29
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 29% -20.0%
≤30d 108 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 28% -20.2%
≤90d 108 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 28% -20.2%
all 108 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 28% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 28% -20.2%
10% -33.6% 24% -27.9%
15% -40.0% 21% -34.8%
20% -45.9% 17% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$33 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$696
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 76
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage16d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 38¢ $250 $152 −$98 (-39%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 79¢ 78¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $97 +$63 +64%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $141 +$53 +38%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$46 +91%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $211 +$25 +12%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $60 −$48 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $81 −$52 -64%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$110 +123%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$12 -36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 −$84 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $72 +$13 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 −$57 -71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $122 +$205 +167%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $263 −$224 -85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$52 -64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $22 +$24 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $41 +$161 +394%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$46 +892%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $212 +$72 +34%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 −$29 -28%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $84 3m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $83 13m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $253 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $160 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $194 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $97 4h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $97 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $141 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $101 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $236 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 89¢ $110 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 14¢ $12 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $29 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $60 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $81 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.82 · official $234.82 (match) · 221 history records