Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
06 0x060d…3865 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$161 (+30%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$43
14 days+$60
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$100
other 45% +$51
crypto 7% +$22
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +84.9% +67.3% 100% 100% +65.5%
≤30d 17 -9.4% -18.0% 53% 53% +3.1%
≤90d 35 +44.2% +30.5% 51% 46% +16.8%
all 35 +44.2% +30.5% 51% 46% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 46% +16.8%
10% +18.0% 46% +5.6%
15% +6.6% 43% -4.6%
20% -3.9% 31% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage81d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 84¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$21 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$17 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 +$11 +42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $86 +$61 +71%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $71 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 07 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 06 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $29 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North A Apr 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 09 $1 +$42 +4245%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $6 +$7 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner Apr 09 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $22 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $42 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $21 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $27 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 11d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 12d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 12d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $3 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 15d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 42¢ $4 15d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $27 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 30d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $2 39d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $2 39d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $21.62 (match) · 63 history records