Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

06 0x060f…6729 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,368 (-8%) realized −$1,368 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate89%16W / 2L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$958per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$96est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-10.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	13	-4.6%	-13.7%	85%	15%	-20.7%
all	18	-1.2%	-10.6%	89%	17%	-16.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.6%	17%	-16.6%
10%	-19.2%	17%	-24.5%
15%	-27.0%	17%	-31.8%
20%	-34.1%	6%	-38.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

81% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,955) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +5% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$89 vs −$1,413 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$113

Realized−$1,368

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses16 / 2

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$96

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage104d

Avg bet$958

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30?	No	100¢	100¢	$113	$113	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in May?	Jun 02	$35	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	Jun 02	$72	$0	+0%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 25	$179	+$131	+73%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	May 15	$177	$0	+0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Apr 21	$2,135	−$2,123	-99%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Apr 21	$1,955	+$180	+9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Apr 11	$1,304	+$651	+50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Apr 09	$720	−$703	-98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Apr 08	$1,976	+$40	+2%
Jazz vs. Rockets	Apr 04	$1,974	+$2	+0%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies	Apr 02	$1,968	+$6	+0%
Wizards vs. Lakers	Apr 01	$923	+$47	+5%
Clippers vs. Bucks	Mar 31	$922	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 28?	Mar 29	$220	$0	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 28?	Mar 29	$684	+$1	+0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Mar 23	$953	+$353	+37%
Will LYON win First Stand 2026?	Mar 22	$951	+$3	+0%
Suns vs. Celtics	Mar 17	$945	+$5	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30?	BUY No	100¢	$113	1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$72	30d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$35	30d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	57¢	$179	35d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	BUY No	100¢	$177	47d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	81¢	$2,135	68d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY Karmine Corp	92¢	$241	69d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY Karmine Corp	91¢	$1,714	69d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	66¢	$1,304	80d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team WE	22¢	$720	80d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	SELL Invictus Gaming	64¢	$2,017	81d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Invictus Gaming	62¢	$1,976	81d
Jazz vs. Rockets	BUY Rockets	100¢	$1,974	85d
Knicks vs. Grizzlies	BUY Knicks	100¢	$1,968	87d
Wizards vs. Lakers	BUY Lakers	95¢	$923	89d
Clippers vs. Bucks	BUY Clippers	100¢	$922	90d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 28?	BUY Yes	100¢	$220	95d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 28?	BUY Yes	100¢	$164	95d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 28?	BUY Yes	100¢	$190	95d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 28?	BUY Yes	100¢	$330	95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	73¢	$953	98d
Will LYON win First Stand 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$951	101d
Suns vs. Celtics	BUY Celtics	99¢	$945	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.94 · official $112.94 (match) · 42 history records