Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
06 0x0610…512f other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$19
politics 17% −$3
sports 5% −$25
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 6% -9.8%
all 99 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 7% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 6% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage97d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $231 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $436 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $396 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $408 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 24h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 28h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 8d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $123 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 31d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $28 32d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $28 32d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 34d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.86 · official $212.86 (match) · 291 history records