Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0611…3d00 world 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 48L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$4
other 34% −$10
politics 15% +$2
sports 10% +$3
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 14% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 40 -0.7% -10.1% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 83 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage485d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $152 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $85 −$16 -18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $456 −$10 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $152 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $85 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $185 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $249 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $151 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $770 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $592 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $151 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $243 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $9 $0 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $147 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $169 −$4 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $291 +$16 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $137 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $199 +$6 +3%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $97 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $94 −$1 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $913 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,003 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,001 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $138 −$2 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $127 19m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 19m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $152 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $11 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $18 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $41 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $85 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $153 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $133 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 33h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $152 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $123 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $82 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $52 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $95 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $55 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $97 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $54 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records