Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
06 0x0611…1d60 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 232L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 26% −$21
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
economics 4% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage137d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $570 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $751 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $512 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $403 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $343 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $285 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $309 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $429 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $158 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $269 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $400 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 7h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 7h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 23h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 41h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 45h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 47h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.41 · official $62.41 (match) · 1320 history records